Hello! My name is CatchingExcalibur, and I'm the one developing and supporting this approval estimator. I built it because the official USCIS processing-time estimates aren't detailed enough to actually plan around, and a lot of us are just trying to get some sense of when our renewal might come through.
I'm a real person doing this in my spare time, not a company or a service. It's free, it's open, and I update it as new data comes in.
The calculator estimates when an I-821D (DACA renewal) case might be approved, based on recent approval data sourced from MyCasesHub.
The basic idea is simple. Each week, I look at which submission dates (DOS, or Date of Submission) USCIS is actually approving. By tracking how that moves forward over time, the calculator can estimate roughly how long it will take USCIS to reach your submission date.
Think of it like a deli counter. USCIS is calling submission dates in roughly the order they came in. The calculator figures out where the counter is now, how fast it's moving, and how far ahead of it your date sits. From there it estimates which week your case is likely to land in.
The methodology has changed over time as USCIS has changed how they process cases. The full story of those changes, including why the math evolved, is in the weekly updates below.
I post a detailed update most weeks on the r/DACA subreddit on Reddit. That's where I share the newest data, explain any changes to the calculator, and answer questions. If you want to follow along or ask me something directly, that's the best place to do it.
Here are all the updates I've posted so far, newest at the bottom: